This blog entry is a bit of a cheat, since Pretensions intended to get to this seminar at the Institute of SE Asian Studies on Monday, but didn't quite make it. It was delivered by the Chief Political Analyst of the Global Business Environment team of Shell, Dr Cho-On Khong, as part of their Energy seminar series. ISEAS normally webcasts their seminars, but this one isn't up yet.

However, P read so much about this when she was deciding whether to go or not, she thought she'd share it with any interested readers.  Basically Shell is trying to sum up the future for its stakeholders by presenting two wildly different visions, Scramble and Blueprint. Essentially, we're all headed for an energy crisis as traditional sources of energy (ie petrol, coal and other fossil fuels) run out. You may have noticed the jump in airfares recently; jet fuel is going to be the first to go as there are no real substitutes in place should it run out.

Scramble depicts the status quo continuing, with political leadership ignoring energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to a massive energy crunch by 2020 and a free-for-all as national governments struggle to secure energy resources for themselves. Needless to say, the resulting sociopolitical situation is pretty grim, with everyone blaming everyone else and everyone taking piecemeal actions. Natural disasters become an everyday event.

Blueprint focuses on NGOs and corporate entities taking action despite selfish governments and working across borders to accelerate change. Efficiency standards, energy taxes and other "unpopular" measures are implemented to improve energy efficiency of buildings, vehicles and fuel, due to public action and outcry. The world is on its way towards a sustainable future.

Watch the Shell video on the 2 scenarios here. Which path do you think we will go down? P is not optimistic...